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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He stated that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” commented the president, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.