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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement receives the prize. In reality, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest upset.

But this year's race is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions fading and recent underperformers rising together. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a wild and thrilling season, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

Still